IS CHINA CONQUERING THE WORLD WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT?

There is a question increasingly being asked in major cities around the world.

Why do Chinese-owned businesses seem to be expanding simultaneously across completely different cities?

Milan. Rome. Paris. Madrid. London. New York. Buenos Aires. Miami.

Tobacco shops, restaurants, supermarkets, import-export companies, wholesalers, textile businesses, property investments.

And then comes the more uncomfortable question:

Where does all this capital come from?

The easiest answer is also the most dangerous one:

“It is all the Chinese mafia.”

Or:

“It is all controlled by Beijing.”

Neither statement can be supported as a general fact.

The reality is much more complicated.

And precisely because it is more complicated, it deserves closer examination.

There are millions of Chinese entrepreneurs who are simply doing business, just like Italian, European, American or Latin American entrepreneurs.

There are also documented transnational Chinese criminal networks.

There are underground financial systems capable of moving enormous amounts of value between continents without using conventional banking channels.

And, simultaneously, there is a Chinese state economic strategy that over the last several decades has brought Chinese capital, infrastructure, technology, trade and companies into a huge part of the world.

These are not the same phenomenon.

But ignoring any one of them means failing to understand the bigger picture.

THE FIRST MISTAKE: ASSUMING EVERY CHINESE BUSINESS IS PART OF A CONSPIRACY

Let us start with what matters most.

There is no general evidence that Chinese tobacco shops in Milan, Chinese supermarkets in Buenos Aires, or Chinese-owned stores in New York are controlled en masse by the Chinese government.

Claiming that would be irresponsible journalism.

The Chinese diaspora has developed a particular entrepreneurial model based in part on family capital, networks of trust, cooperation among members of the community and direct access to international supply chains.

That can create economies of scale and access to suppliers and financing that an isolated small Western entrepreneur may not have.

The fact that a community has developed a strong commercial presence therefore does not prove state control.

But there is another side to the story.

Law-enforcement authorities have documented cases in which Chinese criminal networks have used businesses, companies, bank accounts, real estate and international trade to launder money.

At that point, speculation ends.

The facts begin.

THE ITALIAN CASE THAT SHOULD MAKE US THINK

One of the most significant cases is the Italian investigation known as “Ultimo Imperatore” and “Grande Muraglia,” documented by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

The investigation involved a criminal structure in which Chinese and Italian individuals were allegedly involved, including links to Italian organized crime.

The system revolved around the trafficking of counterfeit goods originating in China and distributed across Europe.

According to UNODC documentation, money was collected through what investigators described as a kind of underground banking system, moved through companies and more than 70 bank relationships, and transferred internationally, including toward China.

The structure allegedly used false documentation, shell companies and nominees.

The money was then reintegrated into the legitimate economy through real estate investments, factories, warehouses and businesses.

The investigation resulted in the preventive seizure of more than 30 companies, more than 70 bank relationships, over €3 million in cash, millions of counterfeit products and assets worth more than €300 million. (UNODC)

This case is important because it illustrates the mechanism:

Crime → trade → cash → companies → banks → international transfers → real estate and businesses.

This is not a conspiracy theory.

It is a system investigated by authorities.

CASH: ITALY AND THE UNITED STATES PLAY BY DIFFERENT RULES

This distinction is important.

In Italy, since January 1, 2023, cash transfers between different parties are prohibited when the amount is €5,000 or more. Italy’s Guardia di Finanza also specifies penalties for violations. (Guardia di Finanza)

The United States operates differently.

There is no general $10,000 ceiling above which a cash payment becomes illegal.

Instead, there is a reporting requirement.

When a business receives more than $10,000 in cash in a single transaction or related transactions, it must file Form 8300 with the IRS/FinCEN. (IRS)

Related transactions can also be aggregated.

So simply breaking a $20,000 transaction into smaller payments does not necessarily eliminate the reporting obligation.

This distinction matters when discussing cash-intensive businesses.

But another distinction is equally important:

A large amount of cash does not automatically mean money laundering.

A legitimate business can simply have significant cash revenues.

The problem begins when cash becomes part of a hidden financial network.

BUENOS AIRES: HERE THE CASE IS EVEN MORE CONCRETE

In 2023, Argentina’s Airport Security Police announced the dismantling of a criminal organization associated with a chain of Chinese supermarkets.

This is not an internet rumor.

It was an official Argentine government announcement.

According to investigators, the organization was led by Chinese nationals with the participation of Argentine and Colombian individuals.

Money collected from supermarkets was allegedly transported clandestinely toward financial “cuevas,” exchange houses and, in some cases, the Triple Frontier area near Paraguay.

Investigators also identified alleged nominee structures and cryptocurrency operations.

During 27 raids, authorities seized approximately $639,000 in U.S. currency, more than 24 million Argentine pesos, euros and Paraguayan guaraníes, gold, vehicles, electronic devices, crypto wallets and 28 cash-counting machines. Fifteen people were arrested. (Argentina Government)

Again, this does not justify saying:

“Chinese supermarkets in Argentina are money-laundering operations.”

It justifies saying something much more precise:

Argentine authorities documented a criminal organization that used Chinese supermarket businesses as part of the collection and movement of money destined for laundering.

That distinction matters.

MILAN: WHEN TRADE BECOMES FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE

The Italian phenomenon is not merely historical.

In 2024, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office announced the discovery of a Chinese underground banking networklinked to a major VAT and customs fraud.

According to EPPO, the criminal operation involved at least €500 million.

The organization allegedly used numerous shell companies and imported hundreds of containers of clothing and accessories from China into Italy, through complex routes involving Bulgaria and Greece.

The goods entered the European market through a sophisticated commercial network.

The system allegedly allowed both VAT/customs fraud and the transfer of money through an underground financial structure. (European Public Prosecutor’s Office)

In 2025, EPPO announced Operation Calypso, targeting criminal networks involved in the importation of Chinese goods into the European Union, including customs and VAT fraud, money laundering and the transfer of criminal proceeds toward China. (European Public Prosecutor’s Office)

This is a much bigger issue than an individual shop.

Because when a network controls:

importation → distribution → sales → collection → transfer of money

it can create a parallel infrastructure that is extremely difficult to monitor.

NEW YORK: 140 BANK ACCOUNTS AND 45 SHELL COMPANIES

In July 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced charges against two alleged members of a Chinese money-laundering network operating in Queens and Brooklyn.

According to the indictment, the network allegedly used approximately 45 shell companies and 140 bank accounts to launder at least $43 million derived from financial fraud.

The scheme allegedly involved individuals in China to move funds internationally. (U.S. Department of Justice)

But this is not the only case.

In 2025, members of another Chinese money-laundering organization pleaded guilty in a scheme that, according to the DOJ, laundered more than $92 million, including proceeds from drug trafficking.

The operation allegedly used couriers to collect large quantities of cash across the United States. (U.S. Department of Justice)

In February 2026, a New York woman was sentenced to two years in prison for laundering more than $20 million in drug proceeds.

According to the DOJ, the money was moved through bank accounts associated with an apparently legitimate business, using commercial transactions to disguise the origin of the funds and transferring part of the proceeds to accounts in the United States and China. (U.S. Department of Justice)

In March 2026, a Chinese national from Flushing pleaded guilty to money laundering involving more than $2 million, with part of the proceeds used to purchase real estate. (U.S. Department of Justice)

And in July 2026, another Chinese national was sentenced to 70 months for a money-laundering conspiracy involving more than $2.28 million in fraudulent gift-card proceeds. (U.S. Department of Justice)

The conclusion is therefore clear:

Transnational Chinese criminal networks exist and have used businesses, bank accounts, real estate, cash, gift cards, cryptocurrency and international trade to launder money.

But that does not mean Chinese businesses in general are part of those networks.

THE MONEY DOES NOT HAVE TO CROSS THE BORDER

This may be the most important financial concept in the entire story.

For decades, people imagined money laundering as a person carrying a suitcase full of cash across a border.

Modern financial crime is much more sophisticated.

Value can be settled without physically moving the money.

One person delivers cash in New York.

Another person connected to the network provides an equivalent amount of value in China.

The physical dollars do not necessarily cross the ocean.

The value is settled within the network.

This is one of the mechanisms associated with underground banking.

And that is what makes these systems so difficult to detect.

The money itself may not move.

The value moves.

THE BIG PARADOX: CHINA DOES NOT NEED MAFIA MONEY TO EXPAND

Now we reach the central question.

Where does the money come from?

Here we need to destroy another myth.

China does not need criminal money to finance its global expansion.

Its legitimate financial capacity is enormous.

In 2024, China’s goods trade reached roughly $6.17 trillion, with exports of approximately $3.58 trillion and imports of about $2.59 trillion.

The resulting trade surplus approached $1 trillion. (World Bank WITS)

The point is simple:

China’s economic machine generates enormous quantities of foreign-exchange earnings and financial capacity.

So the real question is not:

“Where does China get the money?”

The real question is:

“How does China use its economic and financial power?”

THE CHINESE FINANCIAL MACHINE ABROAD

AidData has built one of the most extensive databases available for studying this phenomenon.

Its latest research tracks more than 30,000 projects and activities, involving 1,193 Chinese institutions, with an estimated value of approximately $2.2 trillion, across 217 countries and territories between 2000 and 2023. (AidData)

This is not a story about a few ports.

It is a global financial presence.

Another AidData dataset identifies 371 debt contracts involving 20 Chinese state lenders and 155 borrowers across 60 countries. (AidData)

This is the real point.

China combines:

industrial capacity + banks + capital + exports + infrastructure + state-owned companies + international credit.

That combination is difficult for any country to ignore.

AFRICA: WHERE THE STRATEGY BECOMES VISIBLE

Now we reach geopolitics.

Why does China care so much about Africa?

The simplistic Western answer is:

“To steal its natural resources.”

That is not enough.

Natural resources are certainly important.

But there are at least six strategic interests:

resources, markets, infrastructure, energy, logistics and geopolitical influence.

The World Bank has documented the growth of Chinese trade and investment in Africa and the increasingly important role of Chinese companies in infrastructure development. (World Bank)

China does not simply arrive to buy oil or minerals.

It builds roads.

Railways.

Ports.

Power plants.

Special economic zones.

Telecommunications networks.

Industrial facilities.

And then it sells machinery, vehicles, electronics and consumer goods.

This creates a circular economic relationship.

China finances infrastructure → Chinese companies build it → Chinese goods enter the market → trade increases → the country becomes more integrated into Chinese supply chains.

That is geopolitical capitalism.

Not necessarily criminal capitalism.

WHY AFRICA MATTERS TO CHINA

The strategic logic is straightforward.

1. Critical minerals

Cobalt, copper, lithium, manganese, iron, oil, gas and other strategic resources.

The global energy transition makes many of these resources increasingly valuable.

2. Future consumers

Africa is one of the great demographic markets of the twenty-first century.

China does not want to arrive after the market has already been captured by competitors.

It wants to be there early.

3. Infrastructure

Ports, railways, roads, power generation and telecommunications create long-term economic relationships.

Whoever builds infrastructure often gains access to the commercial ecosystem that follows.

4. Trade

China exports enormous quantities of manufactured goods.

Africa can simultaneously become:

a market + a source of raw materials + a production platform + a logistics corridor.

5. Geopolitics

Economic dependence can translate into political influence.

No military occupation is required.

6. Global logistics

Ports and trade corridors are strategic assets.

This is where the Belt and Road Initiative becomes far more interesting than the simple label of “development cooperation.”

THE BELT AND ROAD IS NOT A CONSPIRACY THEORY

The Belt and Road Initiative is often described in two completely opposite ways.

To some, it is simply international cooperation.

To others, it is a secret plan to conquer the world.

Both descriptions are too simplistic.

The documented reality is much more interesting.

China has built an international network of credit, infrastructure, trade and investment on a scale rarely seen in modern history.

AidData’s research shows that Chinese overseas finance is not limited to poor countries.

Chinese financing has increasingly moved toward higher-income economies and more commercially oriented projects. (AidData)

This is a fundamental transformation.

China does not want merely to remain the world’s factory.

It increasingly wants to be:

financier, builder, technology supplier, trading partner and creditor.

THE QUESTION THE WEST SHOULD BE ASKING

A country does not necessarily need to militarily occupy another country to gain influence.

It can become indispensable.

If a country controls a significant part of another country’s:

• imports;

• infrastructure;

• telecommunications;

• logistics;

• financing;

• raw-material supply;

• manufacturing supply chains;

its influence naturally increases.

No tanks are required.

Economic dependence is enough.

This is one of the most sophisticated forms of twenty-first-century geopolitics.

AND THEN THERE IS REAL ESTATE

This is where the issue becomes even more sensitive.

In 2025, FinCEN published a specific analysis of Chinese Money Laundering Networks (CMLNs).

The analysis examined 17,389 Bank Secrecy Act reportsinvolving more than $53.7 billion in suspicious activity connected to the U.S. real-estate sector.

FinCEN warned that these networks may use nominees and shell companies to purchase property and may employ complex transactions to integrate illicit funds into real estate. (FinCEN)

Again:

$53.7 billion does not mean $53.7 billion of Chinese criminal money.

These are suspicious activities reported to financial authorities.

But the number is large enough to make the phenomenon impossible to ignore.

And it demonstrates that U.S. authorities regard real estate as a potential entry point for illicit capital.

MIAMI: THE PERFECT LABORATORY

Miami is particularly interesting because it combines:

real estate, international capital, Latin America, finance, tourism and foreign investment.

In April 2025, China became the country generating the largest share of international property searches on the Miami Association of Realtors’ website, accounting for 13.3% of international searches. (Miami Association of Realtors)

That does not mean Chinese investors are buying Miami wholesale.

It means there is significant Chinese interest in the market.

And again, that distinction matters.

WHEN CRIME MEETS THE LEGITIMATE ECONOMY

The real problem is not Chinese commerce.

Commerce is legitimate.

The problem begins when criminal capital enters legitimate economic structures.

The mechanism can be brutally simple:

illicit money → companies → trade → bank accounts → real estate → legitimate businesses.

Once that cycle is completed, distinguishing dirty money from legitimate capital becomes much harder.

That is why money laundering is so dangerous.

It does not simply attack the financial system.

It buys its way into it.

THREE CHINAS

Perhaps the best way to understand the phenomenon is to stop talking about “China” as if it were a single economic actor.

There are at least three different layers.

CHINA ONE — THE ENTREPRENEURIAL CHINA

Millions of people who run businesses, import, export, invest and build wealth.

This is legitimate private economic activity.

It is not criminality.

CHINA TWO — THE STATE CHINA

State-owned banks, state-owned enterprises, international credit, infrastructure, the Belt and Road Initiative, investment and economic relationships with Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America.

This is state economic power.

It is not necessarily criminal.

CHINA THREE — THE CRIMINAL CHINA

Underground banking, money laundering, fraud, drug trafficking, shell companies, nominees, cash and international transfers.

This is organized crime.

And it exists.

THE CRITICAL QUESTION IS WHEN THESE WORLDS INTERSECT

This is where the issue becomes genuinely serious.

Legitimate businesses can be exploited by criminal capital.

Criminal capital can infiltrate legitimate economic structures.

Commercial networks can become infrastructure that criminals exploit to transfer value.

And a gigantic export economy naturally generates enormous flows of goods and money across borders.

None of this requires a single central command.

Modern criminal networks can operate through decentralized relationships.

SO, IS CHINA CONQUERING THE WORLD?

If by “conquest” we mean military occupation, obviously not.

If we mean the systematic construction of economic influence, the answer becomes much more interesting.

China is building international influence through:

trade, credit, infrastructure, investment, technology, supply chains, ports, natural resources and markets.

The numbers are simply too large to dismiss.

More than 30,000 Chinese projects and activities tracked by AidData.

Approximately $2.2 trillion in Chinese overseas financing and activities in the 2000–2023 database.

Hundreds of state-linked debt contracts.

A Chinese goods trade volume exceeding $6 trillion in 2024.

And, simultaneously, transnational criminal networks that authorities in Europe, the United States and Latin America are pursuing for hundreds of millions of dollars in alleged or proven money laundering. (AidData)

So perhaps the wrong question is:

“Is China secretly plotting to conquer the world?”

That is too simplistic.

The serious question is:

“How much geopolitical power can a country accumulate when it is simultaneously one of the world’s largest industrial powers, one of its largest exporters, a major international creditor, a global infrastructure builder and a central node of global supply chains?”

That is not a conspiracy theory.

That is economics.

And that is precisely why it deserves more attention than conspiracy theories.

THE REAL RISK FOR THE WEST

The problem is not that a Chinese entrepreneur opens a tobacco shop in Milan.

The problem is much bigger.

For decades, Europe and the United States benefited from globalization while progressively allowing parts of their industrial production, supply chains and strategic manufacturing capacity to migrate elsewhere.

China used that same globalization to accumulate industrial capacity, export power, technological capability, foreign-exchange earnings and international economic influence.

And now the West is discovering that China has become indispensable in areas of the global economy that it once considered strategically irrelevant.

This did not happen overnight.

It happened because, for decades, globalization was treated primarily as a mechanism for buying cheaper goods.

Beijing understood globalization differently.

The West saw a market.

China saw a network.

The West looked for profit.

China also looked for position, infrastructure, technology, markets and strategic autonomy.

That difference may ultimately prove to be one of the defining economic stories of the twenty-first century.

THE QUESTION WE SHOULD BE ASKING NOW

The most dangerous mistake would be to turn this into an ethnic story.

Chinese entrepreneurs are not the Chinese government.

Chinese immigrants are not organized crime.

A Chinese supermarket is not automatically a money-laundering operation.

And a Chinese investment is not automatically an instrument of Beijing.

But the opposite mistake would be equally dangerous:

pretending that documented criminal networks, underground banking, massive capital flows and China’s strategic economic expansion do not exist.

They do.

The facts are increasingly difficult to ignore.

The challenge for Western governments is therefore not to attack legitimate Chinese businesses.

It is to understand where legitimate globalization ends and financial opacity begins.

Where private investment ends and strategic state influence begins.

Where commercial networks end and criminal networks begin.

And, above all, whether Western economies have allowed themselves to become so dependent on Chinese capital, Chinese manufacturing and Chinese supply chains that they have surrendered strategic leverage without ever realizing it.

Because perhaps the most sophisticated form of power is not the ability to invade another country.

It is the ability to make that country believe that it cannot function without you.

That is not war.

That is economic power.

And China understands it extremely well.

Roberto Balbino — CEO, Fintech SCB
Independent analyst of finance, economics, geopolitics and global markets.