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Fintech SCB — Editorial
Análises independentes sobre finanças, economia, geopolítica e as forças que moldam o nosso mundo.
Perspetivas independentes sobre finanças globais, mercados, economia, geopolítica e negócios internacionais — escritas por Roberto Balbino, Founder & CEO da Fintech SCB.
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Prices rise. Incomes do not. The ECB cannot hide the arithmetic.
Governments across the region have adopted debt limits, spending ceilings and medium-term frameworks. Markets remain unconvinced because a rule rewritten whenever it becomes inconvenient is not a rule
Exchange rates can expose weak fundamentals. They can also amplify fear, leverage and market dysfunction. The difficult question is when intervention protects a failed government policy
The political pattern is visible. The economic explanation is much more complicated.
Strong Growth and Persistent Inflation Are Keeping Rates Higher for Longer.
Income inequality tells only half the story. What matters is what salaries can buy, who actually pays taxes, who owns the wealth — and whether education still allows the next generation to move up.
Chelsea, American Billionaires and the Funds Turning European Clubs into Financial Assets
Why record stock indices tell us much less about economic prosperity than financial television, politicians and investors sometimes suggest
Chelsea, i miliardari americani e i fondi che hanno trasformato i club europei in asset finanziari
GDP can grow, inflation can fall and fiscal accounts can improve. But without personal security, rule of law and credible institutions, prosperity remains fragile — and foreign capital knows it.
From an Italian racing prodigy to a €50 million personal brand: Mercedes, image rights, San Marino, taxation and the economics behind Formula 1’s new superstar
Banks have become structurally dependent on abundant reserves. Quantitative tightening is revealing that “normal” monetary policy may no longer have a clear destination.
Everyone defends freedom — until someone uses it to disagree with them
European households save heavily, invest defensively and help finance American technology. The continent is paying for the AI revolution without securing its economic or strategic benefits.
Stablecoin yields can ignore, delay or even reverse monetary policy. DeFi is no longer merely a crypto experiment: it is becoming a parallel monetary system with its own transmission mechanism.
AI safety is colliding with geopolitics — and geopolitics usually wins.
Seguridad, litio, inteligencia artificial, inversiones, los Acuerdos de Isaac y ahora la paradoja de Malvinas. Nunca la relación argentino-israelí había adquirido una dimensión política tan personal.
When the engineers building the accelerator start asking for brakes, perhaps we should understand what they have seen.
How hidden cash enters the financial system — and where legality ends.
The arithmetic behind Trump’s $5,000 promise: tariffs, $40 trillion of debt, inflation and the bill nobody puts on the check
From Jerusalem to lithium, AI and the Falklands: how far does Milei’s alliance with Israel go?
Tiene lógica económica. Políticamente, hoy parece casi imposible.
Ukraine Before the Myth: Poverty, Migration, Corruption — and Who Will Profit From the Peace
Ukraine Before the Myth: Poverty, Migration, Corruption — and Who Will Profit From the Peace
FINTECH SCB Insights / Wealth Management
Italiano
Come investire 10 mila, 100 mila, 1 milione e 10 milioni di dollari
Tre regole prima delle percentuali. Quattro aree geografiche. Sedici portafogli. Una visione integrata di investimenti, casa e successione.
Roberto Balbino / FINTECH SCB
Ricerca indipendente per la rete FINTECH SCB
25 ottobre 2026 · Edizione estesa 1.0 · 63 pagine · PDF
Lettura e download gratuiti
English
How to invest $10,000, $100,000, $1 million and $10 million
Three rules before percentages. Four geographic areas. Sixteen portfolios. An integrated view of investment, homes and succession.
Roberto Balbino / FINTECH SCB
Independent research for the FINTECH SCB network
25 October 2026 · Extended edition 1.0 · 63 pages · PDF
Free to read and download
Español
Cómo invertir 10 mil, 100 mil, 1 millón y 10 millones de dólares
Tres reglas antes de los porcentajes. Cuatro áreas geográficas. Dieciséis carteras. Una visión integrada de inversión, vivienda y sucesión.
Roberto Balbino / FINTECH SCB
Investigación independiente para la red FINTECH SCB
25 de octubre de 2026 · Edición ampliada 1.0 · 63 páginas · PDF
Lectura y descarga gratuitas
FINTECH SCB Insight · November 2026 · by Roberto Balbino
What I Invest In Now
On November 3, 2026, American voters gave Democrats the House and the Senate. Markets sold the result overnight and bought it back by breakfast; the bond market moved first.
After Mid Trump turns that night into decisions: the policies that can still become law under divided government, why the middle of the Treasury curve beats the long end, and a model portfolio built position by position, with the signals that would prove the author wrong.
88 pages · 17 charts · 228 source notes · research cutoff November 4, 2026
General information and education, not individual investment, tax or legal advice. The model portfolio is illustrative. Capital is at risk.
FINTECH SCB Insight · October 2026 · by Roberto Balbino
How the AI Boom Became a Credit Cycle—and Who Will Hold the Loss
The debate over artificial intelligence is still argued as a stock-market question. The money has already moved somewhere else.
In 2026 the largest spenders on AI stopped paying for the build-out out of their own cash. In the first half of the year, capital expenditure at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle absorbed 96 percent of the cash their businesses generated. At Alphabet, Amazon and Oracle it now exceeds it. Their reported debt has more than doubled in less than two years, to about $496 billion. Another $1.2 trillion of leases, signed mostly for data centers not yet delivered, sits outside their balance sheets.
Off the Books follows the contracts. It looks at joint-venture bonds backed by residual value guarantees, vehicles that own the chips, loans secured on hardware that ages faster than the debt, and guarantees written by the chipmakers themselves. It identifies who holds the claims: life insurers and the annuities behind them, semi-liquid private credit funds, and the banks that lend to the lenders. These are the institutions least able to leave when the numbers turn.
The Insight tests its own argument against the strongest objections and sets out three paths to 2028. It also states in advance the evidence that would prove it wrong. It closes with practical guidance and a dashboard of indicators for savers, entrepreneurs, credit investors and policymakers.
Shareholders can sell in a second. The people financing the AI build-out cannot.
78 pages · 23 figures and tables · fully sourced · data to October 29, 2026
Fintech SCB Insights / Educational Master
How to Read Markets, Build Portfolios and Evaluate Hedge Fund Processes
A 64-page guide by Roberto Balbino, Founder & CEO of Fintech SCB, exploring market indicators, hedge fund strategies, portfolio construction, liquidity, leverage and performance evaluation. Includes analytical charts, practical worksheets, a glossary and institutional references. An independent framework for understanding investment decisions and questioning performance claims.
October 2026 edition · English · PDF · Free download
O arquivo reúne 191 publicações, entre 21 de agosto e 4 de novembro de 2026, sobre finanças, economia, banca, mercados, geopolítica, tecnologia, sociedade, negócios e desporto.
Mercados, banca, investimento e tendências financeiras.
Análises independentes de políticas económicas, crescimento, inflação, dívida e mudanças estruturais.
Como as decisões políticas transformam mercados, fluxos de capital e a economia global.
Finanças transfronteiriças, negócios internacionais, mercados emergentes e oportunidades globais.
Roberto Balbino é International Finance & Banking Executive e Founder & CEO da Fintech SCB, com mais de 40 anos de experiência em finanças, banca, private banking, wealth management, corporate finance, M&A e negócios internacionais.
As suas análises combinam décadas de experiência financeira com uma visão independente e muitas vezes não convencional das forças que moldam mercados e economias globais.
Porque os mercados financeiros não são moldados apenas por números.
São moldados por política, poder, política monetária, tecnologia, fluxos de capital e decisões humanas.
O Insights liga estas forças e questiona as narrativas convencionais.
Sem agenda de investimento institucional.
Finanças e economia vistas além das fronteiras nacionais.
Análises concebidas para questionar o consenso, não para o repetir.
Siga Roberto Balbino no Substack e receba as novas análises diretamente no seu email.
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